A Structural Democratic Advantage Going In
Before a single vote was cast, Democrats entered the race with a massive registrationcadvantage:
- 2.52 million Democrats vs. 1.67 million Republicans — an 850,0 00-voter gap.
- Over 900,000 voters are enrolled on the permanent vote-by-mail (VBM) list, continuing a trend that front-loads Democratic turnout. 57% of these voters are Democrat while only 20% are Republican.
- New Jersey’s policy environment also shapes the electorate — driver’s licenses for non-citizens, a statewide sanctuary posture, and prohibitions on voter ID requirements all contribute to a large and easily activated voter pool.
- Voting begins 45 days prior to Election Day, creating one of the longest voting windows in the nation.
A Massive Turnout Spike Compared to 2021
Statewide turnout was 3.47 million ballots, a 32% increase over the 2021 gubernatorial race (2.64 million). Among the biggest surprises:
- Hudson County: +71,837 ballots, a 57% jump from 2021.
- Passaic County: +58,867 ballots, a 52% increase.
These are unprecedented gains for an off-year gubernatorial cycle and placed both counties among the largest turnout accelerations in state history.
Early Returns Favored Democrats by a Wide Margin
Heading into Election Day, Democrats had already banked substantial leads through early voting and VBM:
Vote-by-Mail(VBM) ballots returned before Election Day
- Democrats: 394,288
- Republicans: 131,486
- Democratic advantage: +262,802
Early Voting(EV) ballots returned
- Democrats: 301,821
- Republicans: 262,520
- Democratic advantage: +39,301
These early ballot advantages meant Democratic candidates entered Election Day with more than 300,000 votes already in hand — a decisive structural head start.
Election Day Operations: Fewer Crises, But Not Without Problems
While the election avoided the large-scale failures seen in past cycles (e.g., Mercer 2022, Burlington 2024), several notable issues emerged:
Bomb Threats
Multiple counties — both Democratic and Republican — experienced bomb threats at polling locations, disrupting operations and increasing pressure on election staff.
Machine Malfunctions
- Cumberland County reported several voting-machine issues affecting accessibility and processing.
Pollbook Irregularities
- Essex County voters encountered poll books where signature records appeared blacked out in certain locations.
- Essex uses KnowInk pollbooks, part of Liberty Vote, which recently purchased Dominion Voting Systems, raising concern for some observers about technical integration and oversight.
These issues did not rise to the level of countywide failure, but they added operational friction and uncertainty throughout the day.
County-Level Anomalies That Stand Out
Election analysts flagged several indicators that require deeper examination:
1. Passaic County Turnout Outpaced the 2024 Presidential Election
Unofficial Election Day turnout in Passaic reached 145,980, exceeding the 2024 presidential turnout (111,599) by 34,381 votes.
A gubernatorial year beating a presidential year is highly unusual and statistically significant.
2. Camden’s Vote-By-Mail Rate Was Double the State Average
Across all 21counties, VBM ballots accounted for 19% of returned ballots.
But Camden County stood at 39% — more than double the statewide average.
Only Middlesex County approached Camden’s VBM intensity in the last two cycles, but no other county came close, making Camden an extreme outlier in VBM reliance.
3. Mercer’s Provisional Ballots Spike Again
Mercer County issued 3,911 provisional ballots, representing 3.0% of all votes — nearly double the statewide average of 1.7%.
Mercer’s total provisional ballots were:
- 3,911 in 2025,
- Up 19% from 3,286 in 2024.
This is notable because mismanagement of provisional ballots remains a central claim in the ongoing lawsuit stemming from the county’s November 2022 election.
Social Media Rumors vs. Data Reality
Online chatter claimed that 500,000 first-time voters participated in the 2025 governor’s race.
The data tells a different story.
A review of early voting and VBM ballots found only 31,000 first-time voters, a fraction of the viral claims circulating on social media.
Conclusion: A High-Turnout Election Marked by Uneven Voting Patterns
New Jersey’s 2025 governor’s race will be remembered for:
- A dramatic 32% turnout surge
- A massive Democratic advantage in early and mail voting
- Several localized — but concerning — Election Day irregularities
- Highly anomalous county-level patterns, especially in Camden, Mercer, and Passaic
- A wide gap between social media narratives and factual data
While the election did not suffer a catastrophic breakdown, the patterns outlined above raise important questions about process consistency, county-level supervision, and the impact of pre-Election Day voting programs.
